New Seat Details - Louth and Horncastle

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Louth and Horncastle been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	33,881	63.9%
LAB	14,130	26.7%
UKIP	2,481	4.7%
LIB	1,993	3.8%
OTH	497	0.9%
Green	2	0.0%
CON Majority	19,751	37.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Louth and Horncastle: Map

List of old seats forming part of Louth and Horncastle

Old seat: Boston and Skegness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Boston and Skegness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Boston and Skegness				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Boston	Coastal	2,839	Boston and Skegness	1,211	277	27	97	12	0	0	12	1,636
Boston	Fenside	1,998	Boston and Skegness	1,072	742	24	155	16	0	0	13	2,022
Boston	Fishtoft	4,806	Boston and Skegness	1,847	594	69	261	79	0	0	19	2,869
Boston	Five Village	2,892	Boston and Skegness	1,128	352	19	100	35	0	0	13	1,647
Boston	Kirton and Frampton	4,512	Boston and Skegness	1,936	564	41	227	21	0	0	19	2,808
Boston	Old Leake and Wrangle	2,559	Boston and Skegness	1,046	262	17	108	9	0	0	3	1,445
Boston	Skirbeck	3,541	Boston and Skegness	1,580	1,245	64	184	72	0	0	9	3,154
Boston	St Thomas'	1,432	Boston and Skegness	670	211	25	103	10	0	0	8	1,027
Boston	Staniland	2,294	Boston and Skegness	922	514	34	112	16	0	0	17	1,615
Boston	Station	840	Boston and Skegness	574	402	18	87	30	0	0	4	1,115
Boston	Swineshead and Holland Fen	2,765	Boston and Skegness	1,138	285	20	114	11	0	0	13	1,581
Boston	Trinity	2,703	Boston and Skegness	1,237	571	48	141	23	0	0	13	2,033
Boston	West	1,397	Boston and Skegness	530	121	13	47	5	0	0	2	718
Boston	Witham	2,262	Boston and Skegness	1,008	510	79	148	19	0	0	12	1,776
Boston	Wyberton	2,994	Boston and Skegness	1,202	378	43	175	15	0	0	16	1,829
East Lindsey	Burgh le Marsh	1,984	Boston and Skegness	703	182	15	83	8	0	0	7	998
East Lindsey	Croft	1,802	Boston and Skegness	787	140	8	39	7	0	0	11	992
East Lindsey	Friskney	1,698	Boston and Skegness	695	181	9	74	5	0	0	3	967
East Lindsey	Halton Holegate	342	Louth and Horncastle	147	37	3	21	2	0	0	2	212
East Lindsey	Ingoldmells	1,476	Boston and Skegness	558	349	12	70	9	0	0	10	1,008
East Lindsey	Scarbrough and Seacroft	5,924	Boston and Skegness	2,316	958	65	327	35	0	0	21	3,722
East Lindsey	Sibsey and Stickney	3,992	Boston and Skegness	1,550	345	25	139	14	0	0	20	2,093
East Lindsey	St Clement's	3,398	Boston and Skegness	1,215	567	43	197	18	0	0	14	2,054
East Lindsey	Wainfleet	1,841	Boston and Skegness	695	290	12	71	7	0	0	6	1,081
East Lindsey	Winthorpe	3,896	Boston and Skegness	1,504	622	36	231	67	0	0	17	2,477
	Total	66,187		27,271	10,699	769	3,311	545	0	0	284	42,879

The full details of these calculations are given on the Boston and Skegness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Louth and Horncastle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Louth and Horncastle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Louth and Horncastle				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Lindsey	Alford	3,625	Louth and Horncastle	1,539	777	74	72	0	0	0	23	2,485
East Lindsey	Binbrook	1,982	Louth and Horncastle	949	312	29	32	0	0	0	4	1,326
East Lindsey	Chapel St Leonards	3,785	Louth and Horncastle	1,395	972	62	77	0	0	0	22	2,528
East Lindsey	Coningsby and Mareham	6,065	Louth and Horncastle	3,236	1,050	176	334	0	0	0	77	4,873
East Lindsey	Fulstow	1,874	Louth and Horncastle	952	248	36	70	0	0	0	4	1,310
East Lindsey	Grimoldby	1,734	Louth and Horncastle	806	237	46	83	0	0	0	16	1,188
East Lindsey	Hagworthingham	1,828	Louth and Horncastle	958	189	29	66	0	0	0	9	1,251
East Lindsey	Halton Holegate	1,700	Louth and Horncastle	812	231	41	82	0	0	0	12	1,178
East Lindsey	Holton le Clay and North Thoresby	3,953	Louth and Horncastle	1,806	675	89	78	0	0	0	29	2,677
East Lindsey	Horncastle	5,505	Louth and Horncastle	2,386	879	415	251	0	0	0	39	3,970
East Lindsey	Legbourne	1,775	Louth and Horncastle	963	193	31	63	0	0	0	4	1,254
East Lindsey	Mablethorpe	6,028	Louth and Horncastle	2,163	1,721	124	250	0	0	0	36	4,294
East Lindsey	Marshchapel and Somercotes	3,540	Louth and Horncastle	1,638	582	85	155	0	0	0	9	2,469
East Lindsey	North Holme	1,781	Louth and Horncastle	677	487	49	33	0	0	0	5	1,251
East Lindsey	Priory and St James'	3,545	Louth and Horncastle	1,293	1,132	118	73	0	0	0	29	2,645
East Lindsey	Roughton	1,908	Louth and Horncastle	975	188	25	32	0	0	0	7	1,227
East Lindsey	Spilsby	2,108	Louth and Horncastle	994	498	67	96	0	0	0	6	1,661
East Lindsey	St Margaret's	1,822	Louth and Horncastle	759	508	56	39	0	0	0	13	1,375
East Lindsey	St Mary's	1,806	Louth and Horncastle	797	299	54	37	0	0	0	16	1,203
East Lindsey	St Michael's	1,668	Louth and Horncastle	702	346	55	33	0	0	0	12	1,148
East Lindsey	Sutton on Sea	3,735	Louth and Horncastle	1,555	679	74	174	0	0	0	36	2,518
East Lindsey	Tetford and Donington	1,942	Louth and Horncastle	907	220	51	84	0	0	0	14	1,276
East Lindsey	Tetney	1,824	Louth and Horncastle	986	259	37	38	0	0	0	13	1,333
East Lindsey	Trinity	1,681	Louth and Horncastle	645	535	53	71	0	0	0	10	1,314
East Lindsey	Willoughby with Sloothby	1,986	Louth and Horncastle	1,007	280	33	39	0	0	0	15	1,374
East Lindsey	Withern and Theddlethorpe	1,945	Louth and Horncastle	1,000	224	23	35	0	0	0	13	1,295
East Lindsey	Woodhall Spa	3,535	Louth and Horncastle	1,834	372	58	63	0	0	0	22	2,349
	Total	74,680		33,734	14,093	1,990	2,460	0	0	0	495	52,772

The full details of these calculations are given on the Louth and Horncastle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Louth and Horncastle

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Louth and Horncastle
East Lindsey	Alford	3,719	Louth and Horncastle	1,539	777	74	72	0	0	0	23	2,485
East Lindsey	Binbrook	1,987	Louth and Horncastle	949	312	29	32	0	0	0	4	1,326
East Lindsey	Chapel St Leonards	3,785	Louth and Horncastle	1,395	972	62	77	0	0	0	22	2,528
East Lindsey	Coningsby and Mareham	7,294	Louth and Horncastle	3,236	1,050	176	334	0	0	0	77	4,873
East Lindsey	Fulstow	1,962	Louth and Horncastle	952	248	36	70	0	0	0	4	1,310
East Lindsey	Grimoldby	1,778	Louth and Horncastle	806	237	46	83	0	0	0	16	1,188
East Lindsey	Hagworthingham	1,874	Louth and Horncastle	958	189	29	66	0	0	0	9	1,251
East Lindsey	Halton Holegate	337	Boston and Skegness	147	37	3	21	2	0	0	2	212
East Lindsey	Halton Holegate	1,763	Louth and Horncastle	812	231	41	82	0	0	0	12	1,178
East Lindsey	Holton le Clay and North Thoresby	4,007	Louth and Horncastle	1,806	675	89	78	0	0	0	29	2,677
East Lindsey	Horncastle	5,944	Louth and Horncastle	2,386	879	415	251	0	0	0	39	3,970
East Lindsey	Legbourne	1,878	Louth and Horncastle	963	193	31	63	0	0	0	4	1,254
East Lindsey	Mablethorpe	6,429	Louth and Horncastle	2,163	1,721	124	250	0	0	0	36	4,294
East Lindsey	Marshchapel and Somercotes	3,695	Louth and Horncastle	1,638	582	85	155	0	0	0	9	2,469
East Lindsey	North Holme	1,873	Louth and Horncastle	677	487	49	33	0	0	0	5	1,251
East Lindsey	Priory and St James'	3,961	Louth and Horncastle	1,293	1,132	118	73	0	0	0	29	2,645
East Lindsey	Roughton	1,837	Louth and Horncastle	975	188	25	32	0	0	0	7	1,227
East Lindsey	Spilsby	2,485	Louth and Horncastle	994	498	67	96	0	0	0	6	1,661
East Lindsey	St Margaret's	2,059	Louth and Horncastle	759	508	56	39	0	0	0	13	1,375
East Lindsey	St Mary's	1,800	Louth and Horncastle	797	299	54	37	0	0	0	16	1,203
East Lindsey	St Michael's	1,717	Louth and Horncastle	702	346	55	33	0	0	0	12	1,148
East Lindsey	Sutton on Sea	3,770	Louth and Horncastle	1,555	679	74	174	0	0	0	36	2,518
East Lindsey	Tetford and Donington	1,910	Louth and Horncastle	907	220	51	84	0	0	0	14	1,276
East Lindsey	Tetney	1,996	Louth and Horncastle	986	259	37	38	0	0	0	13	1,333
East Lindsey	Trinity	1,969	Louth and Horncastle	645	535	53	71	0	0	0	10	1,314
East Lindsey	Willoughby with Sloothby	2,057	Louth and Horncastle	1,007	280	33	39	0	0	0	15	1,374
East Lindsey	Withern and Theddlethorpe	1,938	Louth and Horncastle	1,000	224	23	35	0	0	0	13	1,295
East Lindsey	Woodhall Spa	3,517	Louth and Horncastle	1,834	372	58	63	0	0	0	22	2,349
	Total	79,341		33,881	14,130	1,993	2,481	2	0	0	497	52,984

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Louth and Horncastle. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Victoria Atkins (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,341
Turnout:	66.8%

Louth and Horncastle: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Louth and Horncastle: Overview

Introduction